I might refinance, but I might move too.
A refinance only pays off if you are still there. Your odds of staying, priced in.
How to use it
- Enter your balance, current rate, new rate and closing costs, as in scenario 05.
- Give your best guess at how long you keep this home.
- Read the odds you are still there at break-even, and what the refinance is worth over the loan once those odds are priced in.
Will it pay for itself before you move?
The break-even month everyone quotes only matters if you are still in the home when it arrives. This puts a probability on that, from your own best guess.
The reasoning behind it
A break-even month only matters if you reach it. People move, sell and refinance again more than they plan to, so the tool treats your guess as a median and spreads the real outcome around it.
The odds of still being there at break-even, times the savings, minus the costs, is the expected value. Positive means the refinance is a good bet even though you might leave. Negative means wait, or negotiate the costs down.
Ask me directly.
Six quick taps tell you which loan I’d start with, nothing pulled, nothing saved. Or text me and we start there. I read every text myself, usually within minutes during the day. About your numbers, or anything else.
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